Pskovo scientists began to create a system that predicts the spread of viruses

Scientists supporting the University Pskov oblast Pskov state University (Pskov) — began creating a unique system that will predict the spread of viral infections and to consider the specific region of the Russian Federation. To this end, the University plans to open the cybernetic modeling center, and the development will bring together scientists of the physical Institute. P. N. Lebedev (FIAN), Russian Academy of Sciences, said on Wednesday, TASS Pro-rector on scientific work Pskovo Taras antal.

Pskov region for such a system are highly relevant, as the region for the period of the pandemic coronavirus was identified more than ten foci of infection. They were recorded in hospitals, orphanages, construction sites and large industrial enterprises, including “Velikoluksky meat processing plant”, one of the largest meat processing companies in Russia.

“Together with colleagues from the laboratory of mathematical modeling of complex systems physics Institute. P. N. Lebedev (FIAN), we started the development of the project, the purpose of which is extremely important for the whole world is the creation of a multifactor model, which can be used effectively to predict the distribution of different viral infections, and taking into account the peculiarities of any given region or territory of Russia”, — said the Agency interlocutor.

He said that the basic model will be created based on data that scientists have received from the Pskov and Novgorod regions. In the future the forecasting system can be used in any region of Russia. “Of course, given the current epidemiological situation, our main object of study is a coronavirus. But our goal is much broader — we create a universal system that can be used to predict the development of nearly all viral infections, including influenza virus and human immunodeficiency virus”, — said the scientist.

According to him, the project will also be joined by specialists from the Pskov regional center for prevention and control of AIDS and infectious diseases. “Our project will help to better coordinate the actions of regional authorities, administrations and health committees <…> in the period of the spread of such diseases,” — said antal.

Pskovo will create a special scientific-educational cybernetic centre. “He will be engaged in modeling and prediction of infectious diseases. Center staff will conduct statistical calculations and analysis of all incoming data from the region about the situation with the infections. Will be investigated and behavioral responses of the population in the Pskov and Novgorod regions, and also explored the behavior of people in a pandemic: their reaction to prohibitions and restrictions, the structure of social contacts, the activity of the tourist traffic and, of course, demography”, — concluded the scientist.